Why Windows Won't Collapse
April 12th 2008 15:38
The reason Windows won't collapse is because Microsoft stays ahead of the game, now I know this might not be the correct thing to say considering it is a rule of thumb to 'know' that Microsoft does nothing but copy. Yet, here's the thing, Gartner says that the future of computing will be OS independent, that is everything will run from a browser. He believes Google Docs, which is a direct competitor with Microsoft Word, is an example of how Microsoft will lose its grip in the OS world.
Unfortunately for Gartner he's wrong, Microsoft already has plans to make their next generation OS run seamlessly with the internet, in fact just after the launch of Vista Bill Gates said the next version of Windows would be completely non-centralized and that the Live passport system would essentially be your OS. You could go to a cybercafé and have access to your entire computer, all your files and applications, which would be stored on a remote host and would stream to you through the internet. The future of the OS battlefield may change though it remains to be seen just how much and who will win. It's certainly too early to call the end of Windows in the distant, distant future.
The reason Microsoft won't collapse is the same reason everyone wants to believe it will. The end of the traditional operating system is near, though it won't happen until Microsoft says so. For whatever reason you would like to imagine Microsoft has a dominance over the software world and their influence is real. Even after competitors have tried taking it down, be it through competition or proxy court battles (see EU anti-trust cases) Microsoft stands strong as the number one software company in the world. There are a million reasons for why Microsoft and Windows should have collpased yet it hasn't, maybe, just maybe, those anlysts are full of hot air?
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Comment by Icarus
My points here are in opposition to the view you have about Microsoft being ahead of the game. Microsoft has been known to enter different markets and to dominate them. But recently it has failed to have the same strategy work on Google which is right now the single largest threat to Microsoft's dominance. Many events in recent memory - acquisition of aQuantive, focus on online advertising etc are attributed to the moves made by the search giant.
Microsoft plans to move the OS to the internet layer are not new. As of now, there are several companies already making this happen e.g: www.desktoptwo.com
With open source applications available in abundance, this is a natural progression of technology. On the contrary, Microsoft will try its best to downplay a complete move from the desktop to the cloud. A simple reason being that its whole business model is centered around selling packaged software and making users pay for the upgrades.
Also, the main customer of Microsoft and the reason for their dominance also is the clout they have on businesses. Any move to get data on the cloud raises all the more hue about security of data and that is enough to put businesses on the backfoot. Microsoft only needs to emphasize on this to prevent any major move of businesses to the cloud services.
Microsoft cannot abandon its offline data models cause that is the one single source of revenue for them. At the same time they can no longer stop heeding the events on the online side which have lead to the rise of giants like Google. The move to acquire Yahoo is due to the dominance of Google and at the same time to also prevent the rise of any other major competitor in the online services area. The stake in facebook also hints in the same direction.
And this brings us to MS's future plans and that is Windows 7. Its going to be their approach to provide a modular version of windows and more importantly MS will try to start out smaller product cycles so they can bring things to the market more quickly.
Microsoft is espousing a software services model. Moving completely to the cloud is not part of their agenda. In fact, preventing such a move is in their best interest and that is what they would be looking to do.
Comment by Anonymous
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